Experts analyze the factors behind the surge in oil and gas revenues in the Russian budget

Moscow, July 8 – Experts interviewed by the News Agency believe that oil and gas revenues in the Russian budget are increasing due to the recalculation of oil export prices: the country’s economy is gradually recovering, and its development should be further stimulated.

Earlier, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation announced a preliminary estimate of the country’s budget deficit for the first six months – the federal budget was executed in January-June with a deficit of 2.595 trillion rubles, expenditures amounted to 14.976 trillion rubles, and revenues – 12.381 trillion. At the same time, the budget deficit in January-May, according to a preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Finance, amounted to 3.411 trillion rubles. Thus, in June the indicator decreased by 816 billion rubles.

In contrast, oil and gas revenues from the budget of the Russian Federation for January-June amounted to 3.382 trillion rubles, and non-oil and gas revenues – 8.999 trillion rubles. For January-May, these figures amounted to 2.853 trillion rubles and 6.965 trillion rubles, respectively. The Ministry of Finance indicated that the monthly dynamics of oil and gas revenues are gradually reaching a path that corresponds to their basic level, and the volume and path of non-oil and gas revenues in the period from January to June indicate a significant surplus in the dynamics established when the budget law was drafted.

“Although slowly, the gradual recovery of the “falling” oil and gas revenues in the budget continues – so far this is primarily due to a change in the system for calculating oil export prices, and in the future, their recovery may also be, said Vera Kononova, Vice President of Analytical Research. In the institute, the depreciation of the ruble was facilitated by the depreciation of the ruble, if it turned out to be sustainable.For comprehensive strategic studies.

In her opinion, these reasons are signs of a gradual recovery in the economy, which is very important for continued stimulus. “From this point of view, the federal budget deficit is simply necessary for the economy now, since its existence indicates that more money is being invested in the economy than it is withdrawn from it in the form of taxes and other similar payments. The budget deficit gives the economy an incentive to growth, which will result in The future is to broaden the tax base for the budget.

From the point of view of Anton Tabakh, Chief Economist of the Expert Rating Agency RA, the change in the indicators of the budget deficit is due to the fact that “taxes have been collected for the ‘oil industry’ calculated according to the new rules, exporters pay taxes at a better rate in the budget, and expenditures may Apparently settled.

He also added that Expert RA’s deficit forecast is still higher than the official forecast, but only slightly, because dividends from state-owned enterprises and tax on excess profits will have a positive impact. Also, in his opinion, the ruble exchange rate has become more budget friendly.

The procedure for setting Russian oil prices used to calculate taxes on oil came into force on April 1. Accordingly, the maximum discount size for Urals oil is established in relation to the Brent oil benchmark (quote dated North Sea prices). In April, the marginal discount is calculated as the Brent price minus $34 with a monthly decline. Starting in July, the discount will be $25. If the deductions for the Urals are less than the indicated figures, then taxes will be calculated on the basis of the actual cost of Russian oil.