What awaits us in 2023? .. Expectations of the giants of the global economy
A Bloomberg report mapped out the investment scene for 2023, with major banks and strategists unanimously agreeing that a recession will hit this year.
The agency said it was difficult to find upbeat forecasts, threatening new pain for investors who had just weathered the downturn in 2022.
Below are the economic projections for 2023:
Amundi Asset Management:
2023 will be a two-stroke with many risks to watch out for. Market valuations are becoming increasingly attractive, and the direction (policy) of the Fed at the beginning of the year should reveal interesting points.
A significant increase in interest rates this year should affect the global economy mainly in 2023. We expect advanced economies to slip into recession and we expect global growth to be just 1.7%, one of the weakest years for the global economy in 40 years, so we recommend bonds more than equities.
– BCA study:
As for the weak outlook, growth in 2023 will come as a surprise as the US avoids a recession, Europe recovers quickly from the energy crisis and China abandons its coronavirus policy. Growth will slow towards the end of 2023 with a possible mild recession in 2024.
Bank of America:
One shock is still expected in 2023: a recession. The United States, the Eurozone and the United Kingdom are expected to enter recession in 2023, while the rest of the world should continue to weaken, with the exception of China. The recession shock means that corporate earnings and economic growth will come under pressure in the first half of the year.
Bank BNP Paribas:
We expect global GDP growth to slow down in 2023, driven by recession in both the US and the Eurozone, as well as slowdowns in China and many emerging markets.
We live in a time when fears of inflation and the Federal Reserve are fading, but fears of a recession are not yet clear enough to cause stock markets to fall. As we enter 2023, we expect the fear of a US recession to be the driving force.
The recession we predicted nine months ago is now approaching, and Germany and the eurozone as a whole may already be in recession thanks to the energy shock from the war. Our forecast for a US recession by mid-2023 has been confirmed amid early spring events.
– Goldman Sachs:
We expect global growth to be just 1.8% in 2023 as US resilience contrasts with European stagnation and China opening up.
The good news is that central banks are likely to have to cut interest rates sometime next year, which should lead to a robust recovery in asset prices and therefore the economy by the end of 2023. The bad news is that this change will require us to see more economic weakness, rising unemployment, market volatility, lower levels of risky assets and lower inflation.
– Morgan Stanley:
With slow growth, low inflation and a new monetary policy, we expect defensive bonds, equities and emerging markets to move up in 2023.