Despite the depreciation of the pound against the dollar, the Egyptian government made an unexpected announcement about the future of the economy.
The Egyptian government issued a statement expressing great optimism for the Egyptian economy despite the complexities of the global economic scene.
The Cabinet Media Center released a report highlighting the expectations of the International Monetary Fund for a future escalation in the performance of the Egyptian economy.
The report reveals the most notable expectations of the Fund regarding the performance of the Egyptian economy in the coming years, which indicate an increase in growth rates to a record 4% in 2022/2023, 5.3% in 2023/2024, 5.7% in 2024 /2025 5.9% in 2020. 2025/2026 and 2026/2027, while the fund expected inflation to decline to a record 15.8% in 2022/2023, 11.1% in 2023/2024, 7.6% in 2024 /2025 and 7% during 2025/2026 and 2026/2027.
As the fund expected, public debt will decline as a percentage of GDP to a record 88.3% in 2022/2023, 85.5% in 2023/2024, 83.5% in 2024/2025, 81% in 2025/2026 and 77.9%. in 2026/2027, while external debt is expected to decline as a percentage of GDP to a record 39.6% in 2022/2023, 35.8% in 2023/2024, 33.2% in 2024/2025 and 30.9% in 2025/2026, and 28% in 2026/2027.
The report tracked the Fund’s expectations that the overall deficit as a percentage of GDP will be 7.8% in 2022/2023, 8.4% in 2023/2024, 7.3% in 2024/2025, 6 .5% in 2025/2026 and 5% in 2025/2026. 9% in 2026/2027 while primary surplus as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 1.7% in 2022/2023, 2.1% in 2023/2024, 2.3 % in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026, and 2.4% in 2026/2027.
In addition to the above, the Fund expects total international reserves to increase to a record $37.1 billion in 2022/2023, $47.2 billion in 2023/2024, $51.4 billion in 2024/2025 and 63 .9 billion USD in 2025/2026. 2026/2027.
At the appropriate level, the report tracked the fund’s expectations regarding an increase in the number of months of coverage for imports of goods and services to 3.7 months in 2022/2023, 4.6 months in 2023/2024, 4.7 months in 2024/2025 . and 5.8 months in 2024/2025. 2025/2026 and 6.8 months in 2026/2027.
The report indicated that the International Monetary Fund expects net foreign direct investment to increase to $9.7 billion in 2022-2023, $12.1 billion in 2023-2024, $13.5 billion in 2024-2025 and $14.7 billion in 2025–2026 and $16.3 billion in 2026. /2027.
The report added that the fund expects growth in exports of goods and services to reach $76.4 billion in 2022/2023, $79.8 billion in 2023/2024, $84 billion in 2024/2025, $87 billion in 2025/ 2026 and $92.3 billion. in 2026/2027
The International Monetary Fund also expects Suez Canal revenue to rise to a record $7.4 billion in 2022/2023, $7.6 billion in 2023/2024, $7.9 billion in 2024/2025 and $8.2 billion in 2024/2025, according to the report. billion dollars in 2025/2026. $8.5 billion in 2026/2027.
The report outlines the International Monetary Fund’s expectations for tourism sector revenue to rise to a record $11.3 billion in 2022/2023, $14.2 billion in 2023/2024, $18.9 billion in 2024/2025 and 22 .8 billion dollars in 2025/2026. billion in 2026/2027
This comes at a time when the fund expects the current account deficit to fall as a percentage of GDP to a record 3% in 2022/2023, 2.5% in 2023/2024, 2.4% in 2024/2025 gg. and 2.1% in 2020 2025/2026 and 1.8% in 2026/2027.
The report presents the Fund’s most important comments on the state of the Egyptian economy and the feasibility of current and future policies, indicating that the Egyptian economy has been hit by a series of global shocks as Egypt has shown resilience in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, that a health crisis that has delayed the results of efforts and so necessary structural reforms.Now, indicating at the same time that Egypt is committed to implementing its structural reform program despite various challenges, and has issued a royal policy document to enhance the role of the sector.
private in the economy.
In this regard, the fund indicated that the current account deficit narrowed more than expected in 2021/2022. due to a decline in non-oil imports and an increase in the balance of oil after an increase in gas exports, also explaining that, despite the increase, the growth of world oil and food prices slowed down less than expected in the fourth quarter of 2021/2022, reflecting the strength of the manufacturing sectors , transport and communications.
The fund said the banking sector continues to show its resilience as financial safety indicators as of June 2022 showed a banking sector with strong liquidity, adequate capital levels and low non-performing loans.
The Fund said the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has posed challenges for the Egyptian economy and crystallized pre-existing pressures, prompting Egypt to take bold measures, including moving towards a flexible exchange rate and a monetary policy aimed at gradually lowering inflation, expecting exchange rate flexibility exchange rate would help mitigate external shocks, including the consequences of the continuation of the war, the restoration of foreign exchange reserves.
The fund said the Egypt program it supports aims to implement a comprehensive policy package to maintain macroeconomic stability and create the conditions for sustainable growth led by the private sector. It also promotes investor confidence and market access at the right level for Egypt. fulfill their external obligations.
The report points to the Foundation’s view that, with growing economic pressures affecting Egyptian families, Egypt has taken measures to help protect the groups most affected by the crisis, including approving a new social safety net package and adding new families to the Takaful and Dignity Program. expected to increase incomes helps to create space for priority spending on health, education and social protection.